Alternative Visions for a Successful Enlargement

Geographical expansion under European integration has been an important political issue from the outset. This process culminated in the 2004 enlargement, which became possible due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Earlier too, Russia expressed its concerns about the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) vis-à-vis the accession of former Eastern Bloc countries, which remained verbal in the 1990s. After gaining power, with the 2008 Russo−Georgian War as well as the February 2022 aggression against Ukraine – in clear contradiction with the rules of international law – Russia made it clear where its acceptable geopolitical borders lie. The current situation raises serious questions about Ukraine’s possible future membership in the NATO and EU. The burdened historical background of the Western Balkan and other countries seeking candidate status should also be considered. Apart from historical reasons, these countries are lagging behind in realising a market that would be eligible to be integrated into the single market. Some scholars argue that they are performing much worse than the 2004/2007/2013 countries. Last, but not the least, the mixed feeling in the population of these countries is because of the disappointment due to the slow progress of accession and in the case of certain countries, because of past and present conflicts with the West (e.g. regarding the name of North Macedonia or the unsolved issue of Kosovo in the case of Serbia). In the current study, the author seeks to find answers to these issues. In the case of Ukraine, it should be recalled that the revival and application of the doctrine of ‘Finlandisation’ was already suggested in 2014. Finlandisation – something that was not desirable but necessary at the given era – also applied to Austria and Sweden; however, these countries had to wait until the dissolution of the Soviet Union before applying for membership. As for the economic issues and incompatibility with requirements of the Single Market the author endeavours to elaborate on the ideas of gradual or differentiated integration – that is, offering a limited membership instead of full membership of a permanent or temporary nature – and examine whether they are applicable to candidate states or states seeking candidate status, and if the answer is affirmative, in what policy areas in particular. In this regard, it is worth examining the lessons learnt from the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, which allowed Romania to enter the EU despite deficiencies in the judicial system. Apart from gradual and differentiated integration, it is worth examining other possibilities such as a close cooperation with these states. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that at the beginning of the 1990s, there were ideas that the former Eastern Bloc countries would have been offered only a kind of cooperation, but not membership. Last, but not the least, the author examines whether Euroscepticism regarding pro-European attitudes is emerging from the top-down or the other way around − that is, whether ruling political parties are forming public opinion or they are just following it.